DOGE’s Fragile Recovery: Whale Activity Dries Up Amid Critical Support Retest

Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing signs of a fragile price recovery as whale activity has significantly declined, dropping to a 60-day low. Large transactions exceeding $1 million have collapsed from 38 to just 4 daily, indicating a lack of institutional conviction behind the recent bounce, according to analyst Ali Martinez. This divergence between price action and whale participation raises concerns about the sustainability of the current rally. Doge is now facing a critical third retest of its $0.14 support level, a key moment that could determine its near-term trajectory. Historical patterns suggest that this retest could be pivotal for the memecoin's future performance. As of December 2025, the market watches closely to see if DOGE can maintain its footing or if the weak fundamentals beneath the surface will lead to further declines.

Dogecoin Whale Activity Dries Up Amid Fragile Price Recovery

Dogecoin's whale transactions have plummeted to a 60-day low, with $1 million+ transfers collapsing from 38 to just 4 daily. The memecoin's recent bounce lacks institutional conviction, as noted by analyst Ali Martinez. This divergence between price action and whale participation suggests weak fundamentals beneath the surface rally.

DOGE now faces a critical third retest of its $0.14 support level. Historical patterns indicate a 25% downside risk if this floor fails. The absence of large holders exacerbates vulnerability - their inactivity speaks louder than any technical indicator.

Dogecoin Price Prediction: DOGE Tumbles Toward Total Collapse – But is This the Best Buying Opportunity?

Dogecoin's price teeters on the edge of a critical breakdown, with the meme coin testing long-term support at $0.13. A decisive close below this level could trigger an 85% plunge to $0.02, according to Fibonacci extension analysis. Yet, paradoxically, this same level may serve as the launchpad for the next bull run.

Technical analysts point to a deceptive bullish setup emerging from the monthly chart. The breakdown below a year-long ascending trendline mirrors historical patterns that preceded massive DOGE rallies. The $0.13 level now forms the base of a descending triangle, with a recent double-bottom pattern suggesting potential upside toward $0.19.

Momentum indicators add credence to the bullish case. The RSI shows clear divergence from price action, hinting at underlying strength despite surface-level weakness. Market participants remain divided—some see capitulation, others spy accumulation.

Dogecoin Faces December Crossroads Amid Historical Volatility

Dogecoin’s December performance hangs in the balance as historical data reveals a pattern of extreme rallies and crashes during the month. The meme coin enters Q4 2023 battered, with November marking its second consecutive monthly double-digit decline (-21.3%), following October’s 20% drop.

Analysis of CryptoRank data shows a recurring trend: When November closes in the red, December tends to mirror the bearish momentum. In 2021, a 23.4% November plunge preceded a 20.7% December crash. The same pattern emerged in 2022, raising concerns for DOGE holders.

Market observers note Dogecoin’s tendency for wild December swings—both to the upside and downside. The coin’s correlation with broader crypto market weakness this quarter adds credence to the bearish case, though its meme-driven community could spark countertrend rallies.